Rust Satchel Raid Probability Calculator

How to calculate Satchel Success?

In Rust, a satchel charge is a volatile explosive with an inherent 20% failure rate. This means that for every throw, there is an 80% (0.80) standard success rate for the charge to detonate without becoming a "dud" that requires manual reignition.

Chance = (Rate)Throws

Using the Satchel Calculator: An Example

Imagine you are raiding a base and need to blow through a standard Sheet Metal Door. This typically requires 4 successful satchel detonations to destroy the structure completely.

Step-by-step calculation

• Inputting the 80% success rate into the probability model.
• Determining the probability of 4 consecutive non-duds.
• Comparing expected explosions to the door health and structure resistance.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I handle reigniting duds?
Duds can be reignited by interacting with them, but exercise caution: duds may explode immediately upon being picked up or shortly after the second fuse is lit.

Why is raid noise management important?
Because satchels often fail, a raid can take twice as long as expected. The continuous noise from explosions and failed attempts attracts "counters" (other players looking to stop your raid).

Satchel vs. C4 efficiency?
C4 is 100% reliable and detonates instantly but is much harder to craft. Satchels are better for early-game "eco-raids" despite their unpredictable failure rate.