Loot Drop & Profit Calculator

How to calculate Loot Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) represents the long-term average outcome of a random event, such as a loot drop or boss reward. While individual runs vary, EV tells you what you can expect to earn on average over a high number of attempts.

EV = (Probability A * Value A) + (Probability B * Value B)

Using the Loot Calculator: an example

Consider a scenario with a Rare Sword (5% drop rate, worth 1,000 gold) and a Common Herb (40% drop rate, worth 50 gold). Here is how you find the total expected value.

Step-by-step calculation:

1. Convert percentages to decimals (e.g., 5% = 0.05 and 40% = 0.40).
2. Multiply each decimal by its item value (0.05 * 1000 = 50 gold; 0.40 * 50 = 20 gold).
3. Sum these values to find the average per run (50 + 20 = 70 gold per run).
4. Multiply by total runs (e.g., 100 runs * 70 gold) to find your projected profit of 7,000 gold.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is variance? Variance explains why actual results differ from EV in the short term. You might get lucky early on or go through a "dry spell." The Expected Value is the average result once luck levels out.

Does this include non-drop gold? This calculation focuses on random drops. If a monster also awards a guaranteed flat amount of gold per kill, you should add that value to the final average per run.

How many runs are needed for accuracy? The more runs you complete, the closer your actual average will get to the theoretical EV. High run counts (1,000+) are usually required for high-accuracy projections.